Risk factor analysis and corrosion prediction modeling for museum iron cultural relics based on multi-factor coupling
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(1. Shanghai Museum, Shanghai 200003, China;2. Key Scientific Research Base of Museum Environment (Shanghai Museum), National Cultural Heritage Administration, Shanghai 200231, China;3. School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, China)

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    Abstract:

    The corrosion and deterioration of iron cultural relics in museum collections, under the coupled effects of multiple factors, pose a severe challenge for cultural heritage conservation. This study systematically quantified the synergistic corrosion effects of environmental factors, including temperature, humidity, SO2, NO2, O3, HCOOH, and Cl- on iron cultural relics through simulated exposure experiments. A hybrid prediction model was developed based on a Random Forest (RF)-Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. This study introduced a “Corrosion Index (IP)” to correlate environmental stress with the condition of cultural relics. By combining feature engineering of a temperature-humidity interaction term (T_RH) and a pollutant synergy term (SO2_RH), the approach enabled accurate time-segmented prediction of the corrosion rate (60-day prediction R2=0.940). Feature importance analysis identified Cl- as the core risk factor (with a long-term contribution of 0.32), while the temperature-humidity synergy (T_RH) consistently dominated the corrosion process (contribution of 0.28 ± 0.03). Based on corrosion kinetic thresholds, a four-tier risk classification model was established, and a graphical user interface (GUI) supporting real-time assessment was developed, providing technical support for the preventive conservation of museum iron art culture relics.

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History
  • Received:August 14,2025
  • Revised:December 10,2025
  • Adopted:
  • Online: May 12,2026
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